“From the legal standpoint, Taiwan is not part of the Republic of China,” a declassified CIA report on Taiwan written in March 1949 says.
“Pending a Japanese peace treaty, the island remains occupied territory in which the US has proprietary interests,” the report continues.
The report says that communist control of the island would have “seriously unfavorable strategic implications” for the US.
It says that the native population of Taiwan would welcome release from Chinese control, but was not strong enough to stage a successful revolt.
“The Taiwanese are increasingly restive, however, because of the influx of Nationalist officials and military forces, and will become more susceptible to Communist influence,” the report says. Records show that the report, titled Probable Developments in Taiwan, was first declassified about 20 years ago and has since been gathering dust in the National Archives. It was unearthed this week by researchers who believe that it may not have been written about before.
“Assuming US inactivity, Taiwan will eventually pass under the control of the Chinese Communists,” the report says.
“In any US program to prevent this, the advantages to be gained from the strategic military viewpoint would have to be weighed against unfavorable political consequences, the extent of which would vary depending upon the selection and timing of measures for implementing the program,” the report says.
The CIA expected the early establishment of a communist-dominated government over all China and “it can be assumed that such a government would strive to establish its authority in Taiwan.”
When first written in 1949, the report was classified as “secret.”
“There is a strong sentiment in Taiwan favoring autonomy, but the situation is complicated by the conflicting interests of the native Taiwanese and Chinese Nationalist element,” the report says. “The Taiwanese bitterly resent the performance of the Nationalist administration on Taiwan since VJ [Victory over Japan]-day,” it adds.
According to the CIA, the Chinese rulers had exploited the native population “to the limit” without regard for their welfare or the preservation of the island’s resources. The report says that a Nationalist “rump government” on Taiwan could not be relied upon to prevent the communists from gaining control of the island.
“The Nationalist Army, Navy and Air Force are not only inefficient, but their loyalty and will to fight are questionable,” the report says. “In addition, such a refugee regime would be unstable because of the hostility of the local population which, in these circumstances, would be increasingly susceptible to Communist influence.”
The report concludes that the situation in Taiwan was growing more critical for the US because of Taiwanese discontent, Chinese Nationalist preparation of the island as “a last bastion” and increasing Chinese communist interest in, and capabilities toward, the island.
However, the strategic implications to US security of a takeover of Taiwan by China “would be seriously unfavorable,” it says.
ENDEAVOR MANTA: The ship is programmed to automatically return to its designated home port and would self-destruct if seized by another party The Endeavor Manta, Taiwan’s first military-specification uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) tailor-made to operate in the Taiwan Strait in a bid to bolster the nation’s asymmetric combat capabilities made its first appearance at Kaohsiung’s Singda Harbor yesterday. Taking inspiration from Ukraine’s navy, which is using USVs to force Russia’s Black Sea fleet to take shelter within its own ports, CSBC Taiwan (台灣國際造船) established a research and development unit on USVs last year, CSBC chairman Huang Cheng-hung (黃正弘) said. With the exception of the satellite guidance system and the outboard motors — which were purchased from foreign companies that were not affiliated with Chinese-funded
PERMIT REVOKED: The influencer at a news conference said the National Immigration Agency was infringing on human rights and persecuting Chinese spouses Chinese influencer “Yaya in Taiwan” (亞亞在台灣) yesterday evening voluntarily left Taiwan, despite saying yesterday morning that she had “no intention” of leaving after her residence permit was revoked over her comments on Taiwan being “unified” with China by military force. The Ministry of the Interior yesterday had said that it could forcibly deport the influencer at midnight, but was considering taking a more flexible approach and beginning procedures this morning. The influencer, whose given name is Liu Zhenya (劉振亞), departed on a 8:45pm flight from Taipei International Airport (Songshan airport) to Fuzhou, China. Liu held a news conference at the airport at 7pm,
Authorities yesterday elaborated on the rules governing Employment Gold Cards after a US cardholder was barred from entering Taiwan for six years after working without a permit during a 2023 visit. American YouTuber LeLe Farley was barred after already being approved for an Employment Gold Card, he said in a video published on his channel on Saturday. Farley, who has more than 420,000 subscribers on his YouTube channel, was approved for his Gold Card last month, but was told at a check-in counter at the Los Angeles International Airport that he could not enter Taiwan. That was because he previously participated in two
SECURITY RISK: If there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘there would likely be significant consequences to global economic and security interests,’ it said China remains the top military and cyber threat to the US and continues to make progress on capabilities to seize Taiwan, a report by US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The report provides an overview of the “collective insights” of top US intelligence agencies about the security threats to the US posed by foreign nations and criminal organizations. In its Annual Threat Assessment, the agencies divided threats facing the US into two broad categories, “nonstate transnational criminals and terrorists” and “major state actors,” with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea named. Of those countries, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat