[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries

Nature Climate Change volume 8, pages 151–155 (2018)Cite this article

Subjects

An Author Correction to this article was published on 14 March 2018

This article has been updated

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, 195 nations have committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to strive to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (ref. 1). It is noted that this requires "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century"1. This either calls for zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or a balance between positive and negative emissions (NE)2,3. Roadmaps and socio-economic scenarios compatible with a 2 °C or 1.5 °C goal depend upon NE via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance remaining GHG emissions4,5,6,7. However, large-scale deployment of BECCS would imply significant impacts on many Earth system components besides atmospheric CO2 concentrations8,9. Here we explore the feasibility of NE via BECCS from dedicated plantations and potential trade-offs with planetary boundaries (PBs)10,11 for multiple socio-economic pathways. We show that while large-scale BECCS is intended to lower the pressure on the PB for climate change, it would most likely steer the Earth system closer to the PB for freshwater use and lead to further transgression of the PBs for land-system change, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows.

Access through your institution
Buy or subscribe

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access through your institution

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Emission balance of optimal biomass production within regional safe and increasing risk zones for two biomass conversion pathways.
Fig. 2: Status of global PBs considering agricultural land use in SSP1 and biomass production within regional safe and increasing risk zones.
Fig. 3: Effect of biodiversity and freshwater conservation objectives for fixed biomass production targets.

Similar content being viewed by others

Change history

  • 14 March 2018

    In the version of this Letter originally published, in Fig. 2, the labels for the yellow and green areas were swapped: the yellow areas should have been labelled ‘Global uncertainty zones’ and the green areas should have been labelled ‘Global safe zones’. This has now been corrected in the online versions of the Letter.

References

  1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev1 (UNFCCC, 2015).

  2. Rogelj, J. et al. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 105007 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Sanderson, B. M., O’Neill, B. C. & Tebaldi, C. What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 7133–7142 (2016).

  4. Rockström, J. et al. A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science 355, 1269–1271 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Fuss, S. et al. Betting on negative emissions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 850–853 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Gasser, T., Guivarch, C., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D. & Ciais, P. Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nat. Commun. 6, 7958 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Popp, A. et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Environ. Chang. 42, 331–345 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Vaughan, N. E. & Lenton, T. M. A review of climate geoengineering proposals. Climatic Change 109, 745–790 (2011).

  9. Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. & Boysen, L. R. Is extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal a ‘green’ form of geoengineering? A global modelling study. Glob. Planet. Chang. 137, 123–130 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Rockström, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472–475 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Steffen, W. et al. Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347, 1259855 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Schleussner, C. F. et al. Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 827–835 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Kriegler, E. et al. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Chang. 42, 297–315 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Popp, A. et al. Land-use protection for climate change mitigation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 1095–1098 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Riahi, K. et al. Glob. Environ. Chang. 42, 153–168 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Heinke, J. et al. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming. Geosci. Model. Dev. 6, 1689–1703 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Klein, D. et al. The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE. Climatic Change 123, 705–718 (2014).

  18. Edenhofer, O. et al. (eds.) Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2011).

  19. Qin, X., Mohan, T., El-Halwagi, M., Cornforth, G. & McCarl, B. A. Switchgrass as an alternate feedstock for power generation: an integrated environmental, energy and economic life-cycle assessment. Clean. Technol. Environ. Policy 8, 233–249 (2006).

  20. National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).

  21. Roncucci, N., Nassi O Di Nasso, N., Tozzini, C., Bonari, E. & Ragaglini, G. Miscanthus giganteus nutrient concentrations and uptakes in autumn and winter harvests as influenced by soil texture, irrigation and nitrogen fertilization in the Mediterranean. Glob. Chang. Biol. Bioenergy 7, 1009–1018 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Herzog, H. J. Scaling up carbon dioxide capture and storage: from megatons to gigatons. Energy Econ. 33, 597–604 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Watson, J., Kern, F. & Markusson, N. Resolving or managing uncertainties for carbon capture and storage: Lessons from historical analogues. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 81, 192–204 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Rogelj, J. et al. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 519–527 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Smith, P. et al. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 42–50 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Smith, P. et al. How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals? Glob. Chang. Biol. 19, 2285–2302 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Beringer, T., Lucht, W. & Schaphoff, S. Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints. Glob. Chang. Biol. Bioenergy 3, 299–312 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Bonsch, M. et al. Trade-offs between land and water requirements for large-scale bioenergy production. Glob. Chang. Biol. Bioenergy 8, 11–24 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Woolf, D. et al. Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change. Nat. Commun. 1, 56 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W. & Sitch, S. Terrestrial vegetation and water balance—hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. J. Hydrol. 286, 249–270 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Rost, S. et al. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resour. Res. 44, W09405 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Sitch, S. et al. Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob. Chang. Biol. 9, 161–185 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Bondeau, A. et al. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Glob. Chang. Biol. 13, 679–706 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A. & Gerten, D. Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: present and potential future patterns. J. Hydrol. 384, 218–231 (2010).

  35. Jägermeyr, J. et al. Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 3073–3091 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Harris, I., Jones, P., Osborn, T. & Lister, D. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations — the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 623–642 (2014).

  37. Hastings, A. et al. Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe. Glob. Chang. Biol. Bioenergy 1, 180–196 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Stevanovic, M. et al. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare. Sci. Adv. 2, e1501452 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Bodirsky, B. et al. Food demand projections for the 21st century. PLoS. One. 10, e0139201 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Bodirsky, B. et al. Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution. Nat. Commun. 5, 3858 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  41. Flörke, M. et al. Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: A global simulation study. Glob. Environ. Chang. 23, 144–156 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Konis, K. lpSolveAPI: R Interface to ‘lp_solve’ v.5.5.2.0 (2016); https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/lpSolveAPI/index.html

  43. de Vries, W., Kros, J., Kroeze, C. & Seitzinger, S. P. Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 5, 392–402 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Bouwman, L. et al. Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 20882–20887 (2011).

  45. Kauter, D., Lewandowski, I. & Claupein, W. Pflanzenbauwissenschaften 5, 64–74 (2001).

  46. Lassaletta, L., Billen, G., Grizzetti, B., Anglade, J. & Garnier, J. 50 year trends in nitrogen use efficiency of world cropping systems: the relationship between yield and nitrogen input to cropland. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 105011 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Scholes, R. J. & Biggs, R. A biodiversity intactness index. Nature 434, 45–49 (2005).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Kier, G. et al. A global assessment of endemism and species richness across island and mainland regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 106, 9322–9327 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Pastor, A. V., Ludwig, F., Biemans, H., Hoff, H. & Kabat, P. Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 5041–5059 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank H. Kreft and C. Meyer for providing the endemism richness data sets and B. Bodirsky for discussions on the planetary boundary for biogeochemical flows. This research was funded by the DFG in the context of the CE-Land and CEMICS2 projects of the Priority Program 'Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges, Opportunities?' (SPP 1689). We acknowledge the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Land Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the high-performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

    Vera Heck, Dieter Gerten, Wolfgang Lucht & Alexander Popp

  2. Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Vera Heck, Dieter Gerten & Wolfgang Lucht

  3. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human–Environment Systems, Berlin, Germany

    Wolfgang Lucht

Authors
  1. Vera Heck
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dieter Gerten
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wolfgang Lucht
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Alexander Popp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

V.H. designed the study with input from D.G., W.L. and A.P. V.H. developed the methodology, performed all simulations, analysed the results and created the figures. Land-use data from MAgPIE were provided by A.P. V.H. led the writing process with contributions from D.G., W.L. and A.P.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vera Heck.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

A correction to this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0107-z.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Methods, Supplementary Tables 1–2, Supplementary Figure 1–7 and Supplementary References.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. et al. Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries. Nature Clim Change 8, 151–155 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0064-y

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Microbiology

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Microbiology newsletter — what matters in microbiology research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Microbiology