‘A feasible bite out of a big apple’: outcomes from ARINS/Irish Times North-South surveys 2024

‘A feasible bite out of a big apple’: outcomes from ARINS/Irish Times North–South surveys 2024
by Allan LEONARD
13 March 2025

The ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland, North and South) project recently held its first event in Belfast, focusing on constitutional futures and the socio-political landscape of a potential United Ireland. After a keynote presentation by Professor Brendan O’Leary, discussions, insights, and reflections were made by fellow panellists Professor John Garry, Dr Jamie Pow, and Dr Dawn Walsh. The event was a collaborative effort with the Senator George A. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice at Queen’s University Belfast.
ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Johnny BAMBURY
Dr Susie Deedigan opened the event by thanking the attendees and introducing the ARINS project: “I work for Notre Dame, based here in Belfast, where I am expanding the reach of the ARINS project in Northern Ireland.” She further explained that ARINS is a joint research initiative of the University of Notre Dame and the Royal Irish Academy, aimed at producing independent, non-partisan research and analysis on various aspects of Ireland, North and South. Dr Deedigan highlighted the two podcast series (1) (2) and open-access journal articles that the project produces, emphasising their role in disseminating crucial information and fostering intellectual discourse.

Survey results

Professor Brendan O’Leary (University of Pennsylvania) followed Dr Deedigan, presenting an overview of the ARINS project’s survey results for 2024. He explained that the focus of the survey results was on voting intentions in hypothetical future referendums, shifts in “loser’s consent”, and people’s perceptions of government formation models in a hypothetical United Ireland.
ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys: 2024 Overview of Results. © ARINS: Garry, O’Leary, Pow, and Walsh
O’Leary began by discussing the core question of the survey: intentions to vote in a future referendum on a choice between Irish unity and the maintenance of the union: “The South remains solidly in favour of unification by a ratio of 4 to 1.”
Professor Brendan O’LEARY (University of Pennsylvania). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
He further elaborated on the shifts among Northern Catholics and Protestants: “Support for unification among cultural Catholics has risen from 55% to 63% over this period. Support for the union has fallen from 21% to 18%, and there’s a significant drop in ‘don’t knows’ among the cultural Catholic community, from 21% to 16%.” Disseminating this information, O’Leary pointed out that achieving majority support for unification would require continued gains in these demographics.
ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys: 2024 Overview of Results. © ARINS: Garry, O’Leary, Pow, and Walsh
The survey results also indicated significant demographic changes impacting voting intentions. “You’ll see a statistically significant rise in support for Irish unity from 27% to 34%, and that’s a 7% rise over two years,” O’Leary said.
ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys: 2024 Overview of Results. © ARINS: Garry, O’Leary, Pow, and Walsh
One of the key highlights from the survey was the significant rise in “loser’s consent” among Northern Protestants: “In our first surveys in 2022, a third of Northern Protestants found unification almost impossible to accept. This year, that number is down to 1 in 5.” He attributed this shift either to a reduced fear of Irish unification or a greater confidence in winning a pro-union referendum result.

Deliberative forums

O’Leary then shifted focus to the insights on institutional changes in the event of a United Ireland, which were a significant part of the deliberative forums. He explained, “We provided participants with five possible models for the government of a United Ireland and let them deliberate on the pros and cons of each model.” These models were:

1. the existing system in the Republic of Ireland
2. the Northern Ireland model adapted for a United Ireland
3. an inclusive coalition model
4. a quota model
5. a territorial model

ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys: 2024 Overview of Results. © ARINS: Garry, O’Leary, Pow, and Walsh
The inclusive coalition model gained significant traction among the participants: “Broadly speaking, we can say with some confidence that this model commanded most confidence among the three groupings: Northern Protestants, Northern Catholics, and the citizens of the Republic.” This model proposes a coalition government proportionally representative of the all-island parliament, devoid of veto powers, and featuring a single Prime Minister.

Before opening the discussion to the audience, Dr Deedigan asked the panellists for any results that particularly surprised them.
Dr Jamie POW (Queen’s University Belfast). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Johnny BAMBURY
For example, Dr Jamie Pow (Queen’s University Belfast) highlighted the distinction people made between wanting to achieve a United Ireland versus planning for the possibility of it. He noted that this was especially relevant when comparing to Brexit, where a lack of clear planning led to a muddled aftermath. He emphasised that people, particularly in Northern Ireland, seem to acknowledge the importance of planning, even if they don’t necessarily support the idea of a United Ireland.
Professor John GARRY (Queen’s University Belfast). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
Professor John Garry (Queen’s University Belfast) remarked how a deliberative forum or a citizen’s assembly is a bit like a “really boring wedding”: “You turn up for a whole day, you’re not quite sure who you’re going to meet, you sit around tables, you listen to speeches, and then you chit chat amongst each other in a slightly awkward way.” He added that a crucial element is who isn’t in the room — politicians and journalists.
Professor Brendan O’LEARY (University of Pennsylvania). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
Meanwhile, O’Leary noted the persistent strength of hostility to the option of Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth — though understandable with its association with the 1921 Treaty. Yet the survey question on a United Ireland joining NATO led to some flexibility. O’Leary pointed out the curiousness about this, in that Commonwealth membership has “zero institutional or policy consequences — you might have to hold sporting events in a specific Irish city”. By contrast, O’Leary noted, joining NATO means the end of military neutrality, is a serious obligation in terms of public expenditure, and involved joining a military alliance with the neighbour Great Britain.

Audience discussion

The Q&A session allowed audience members to engage directly with the speakers.

Brian O’Neill from Slugger O’Toole raised an important point about the need for standardization across various sectors such as education, healthcare, and business. O’Leary responded by acknowledging the importance of these issues but noted that unification does not necessarily mean standardization of everything: “If there were to be the maintenance of devolved government in the North, in the event of unification, that might mean the preservation of some things that you might not like, like the existing education system, in the North.”
Dr Dawn WALSH (University College Dublin). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
Dr Dawn Walsh (University College Dublin) added that the ARINS project includes research on making the island work as is, with a focus on areas like children’s rights and ease of living and working in different jurisdictions. “There’s work being done… on children’s rights, North and South, and how to standardize that,” she mentioned. This research aims to address the practical challenges and opportunities for greater North-South cooperation without necessarily conflating them with the discussion on unification.
Professor Adrian GUELKE (Queen’s University Belfast). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
Another question from Professor Adrian Guelke focused on the low salience of planning for a United Ireland. Pow pointed out that when people were asked to rank issues, healthcare, the economy, and housing usually topped the list, both in Northern Ireland and the Republic. Planning for the possibility of a United Ireland and achieving a United Ireland ranked lower, indicating that other issues hold more immediate importance for most people. O’Leary replied that while it might not be an everyday topic, “doing so is certainly not going to antagonize the population of the Republic, and it will be surprisingly well received among a significant swathe of the Protestant population in the North”.

An audience member expressed concerns about the status of the Irish language in a potential United Ireland, fearing it could be downgraded to compromise with Unionist communities. Professor O’Leary reassured that such a scenario is unlikely, given the deep cultural significance of the Irish language: “My judgment would be that if you asked the citizens of the Republic about whether to radically downgrade the status of Irish… they would react with the same vehemence that they do to the idea of joining the Commonwealth.”

Dr Walsh acknowledged the practical challenges but emphasised that specific exemptions could be made in areas like primary school teaching without undermining the broader cultural commitment to the Irish language. “Something we might want to think about asking is different aspects of the Irish language, and how it’s acquired by different institutions within the Irish state,” she suggested, indicating a flexible yet committed approach to cultural preservation.

From the audience, Alan Jones described himself as from County Antrim, Presbyterian roots, but as he is married to a Malaysian and practising Buddhism, considers himself now in a multicultural, multifaith family. Asking how it fits in “to where we’re going to be in 25 years”, Jones read the preamble of the Irish constitution:

“In the Name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred, We, the people of Éire, Humbly acknowledging all our obligations to our Divine Lord, Jesus Christ, Who sustained our fathers through centuries of trial, Gratefully remembering their heroic and unremitting struggle to regain the rightful independence of our Nation…”

O’Leary replied that in any United Ireland, this preamble “would have to go”. Yet he emphasised that in constitutions, preambles have no legislative or constitutional force on the part of courts: “But this is an example of a symbolic change that will be absolutely necessary.”
Professor Monica McWILLIAMS (Ulster University). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
The event concluded with reflections on the methodologies used in the research and the potential areas for future study. The ARINS team plans to continue their annual surveys and deliberative forums to capture evolving public opinions. They also aim to explore topics like policing, justice, and rights across the island. “Next year we’re looking at policing and justice. Part of it would be looking at the question of rights across the island as a whole,” O’Leary stated.

Garry said that their research approach was like taking “a feasible bite out of a big apple”: “It’s almost the opposite of a blank-sheet-of-paper approach, [because that] becomes extremely unwieldly if you want to get anywhere coherently.”
Dr Jamie POW (Queen’s University Belfast). ARINS/Irish Times North-South Surveys. Presentation of 2024 overview of results. Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland. © Allan LEONARD @MrUlster
Pow acknowledged that the academic team plans to explore institutional reform in Northern Ireland and the Republic in the future, separate from the issue of reunification, emphasizing a broader interest in how governance could evolve on the island.

The inaugural ARINS event in Belfast was a significant step in fostering dialogue and understanding about the potential futures of Ireland. Through rigorous research, expert discussions, and public engagement, the ARINS project aims to provide a comprehensive, nuanced view of the complex socio-political landscape of Ireland, North and South. As Dr Deedigan aptly said, “Our research has two major strands: making the island work and looking at constitutional futures.”

The ARINS event in Belfast revealed important insights into public opinion on Irish unification, the willingness to plan for its possibility, and the complexities of such a transition. Key takeaways include a rising trend in support for Irish unity, a significant increase in “loser’s consent” among Northern Protestants, and the crucial distinction between planning for and achieving a United Ireland. The event underscored the importance of continued research and public engagement in understanding and shaping the future of Ireland.

Feature image © Johnny BAMBURY

#SluggerOToole #featured #NorthernIreland #politics

2021: History Boy Summer (Part 1) Fort Osage State Historic Site

I don’t normally put a lot of emphasis on New Year’s Resolutions, as most are unattainable and end up going by the wayside like 30 days after you start doing them. Honestly, going into 2021 my goal is hopefully “go outside a bit” which stands in stark contrast to last year when I, like many, lived as a cavemen holed up in my Covid-19 safety shelter watching the exploits of a mulleted redneck that dabbles in tigers and attempted murder. My two goals (I like that better) that have stuck for this year have been: “I have a bunch of unread books, I need to read more this year” and “I haven’t been to any local historical sites in a LONG time, maybe I should go to them.” Both are easy to do and both are relatively inexpensive. The latter gets me outside a bit – usually I go to conventions and live music shows throughout the year, without those I need something to clear the cobwebs. So, History Boy Summer begins!

FORT OSAGE: Sibley, MO

I laid out a plan that started in Fort Osage, a small rebuilt fortress built near the Missouri River in what is now Sibley, MO. When I was a child, one of my fondest memories was going there with my Mother and Grandparents. I clearly recall an episode wherein my grandfather was about to head downstairs into the basement of some building (in hindsight this must have been the storehouse under the trading post) he came back upstairs with a worried look on his face, and basically said “hey, we’re not going in there”, as I guess there was a black Cornsnake dangling from the ceiling. It’s one of those memories that really sticks with me for whatever reason. My grandfather died when I was very young, so I don’t recall a lot of his true personality, but one thing I can recall was his Indiana Jones level hatred of snakes. I also recall briefly thinking the living history staff were ghosts, because why else would old-timey soldiers be walking around. My Mother had to ease my worries by saying “those guys are just in costumes!” Four year old me was very relieved.

So, here I am 34 years out wondering why I haven’t returned. I lived in Warrensburg, MO for a long time, and did not have a car until my mid to late twenties. Due to this, arranging a trip to go to a living history museum hours away was going to be hard. I do have some friends into history as well, but not as much as myself. in 2014 I moved to Independence, MO – literally a few miles from Fort Osage and I still never went because time just never seemed to line up and I had it in my head that I absolutely had to go with somebody to things like this. I’ve changed a lot in the last 5 years, for good and bad reasons, but one of my new mantras is: if I want to do something I will do it, no matter if I’m alone or not. Life is too short for me to worry about unwanted shared experiences. If it’s cool, maybe I can take them there later. Tomorrow is never guaranteed, it’s time to live life. So, the plan was laid – I was off to Fort Osage.

Background:

Fort Osage was an early 19th-century trading post run by the United States Government. At that time, it sat on the literal edge of the united states overlooking native lands and untamed wilderness gained through the Louisiana Purchase. The Treaty of Fort Clark, signed with members of the Osage Nation in 1808, called for the United States to establish Fort Osage as a trading post and to protect the Osage from tribal enemies as well as provide money to said Natives. Of course, our very own Congress bumbled a lot of this treaty up as they historically always do, and the general mistreatment of the Indians was in full effect.
While the fort never succumbed to any fighting during the War of 1812, it was relatively close to some battles with British-led Natives on similar US forts, an example being Fort Madison in present day Iowa. had the tide of that battle gone differently, who knows. According to Wikipedia, Archaeologists rediscovered the foundations of Fort Osage in the 1940s. The station was reconstructed to portray Fort Osage as it was in 1812 by using the preserved surveys created by William Clark and others. This made restoration to exact specifications possible.

Reading:

During this project, I have decided to give myself homework of sorts. I plan to read something, a book preferably, on the subject at hand for each excursion. The reason for this being, I want to know what’s going on, just in case they are either closed, the guided tours don’t happen, or its slanted in one direction or another for political reasons. I was really worried about the latter in regards to my next topic (Battle of Lexington), but I will get to that next time.

To prepare for Fort Osage, I actually tracked down an old book from around the time I was born, seemingly one of the only ones on the actual Fort Itself called Fort Osage–opening of the American West by Rhoda Wooldridge. I know there are diaries published from George C. Sibley out there, but I’m sure these will be even harder to get, or be chained to a library. Its lack of Footnotes aside, the information seems to be a narrative of the aforementioned diaries of the various people involved, so it’s got to be pretty accurate, and its a quick read. If you’d like to read my full review of this book, please click HERE.

It’s a shame this book isn’t available in digital format nor left in print at all since 1983, as it seems to be pretty good. The local publisher seems to only print books related to Alcoholics Anonymous and other rehabilitation plans, and whilst being a noble cause, its sad to see local history go by the wayside.

The Trip:

For this trip, the Covid-19 global pandemic was still in full effect and vaccinations were just starting to get rolling on a large scale. As a result, a lot of the living history stuff that is normally going on here was absent, and a mask mandate was in place. That said, everything was very enjoyable nonetheless. Upon arrival at the grounds, one first goes into a large, modern, visitor’s center. As of this writing, it costs eight dollars to enter the fort itself, and four for children. Be sure to check their website for current prices and other promotions. There is the obligatory informational video available to park patrons that tells the history of the time period and the park itself.

After hitting the giftshop, yeah I did it first for some reason, I walked through their large museum collection within the visitors center. These exhibits consisted of artifacts of the time such as items sold at the trading post, military uniforms, native artifacts, a full sized canoe, and even cannons. This museum is decently sized and takes around ten to thirty minutes to get through depending on the speed that one can read, and I’d assume walk. I had a little one with me, and he especially enjoyed seeing the cannons, a theme that would carry-on into the heart of the Fort itself. My personal favorite was probably the uniforms as I will admit I am not the most well-versed on War of 1812 history, as I’m sure are most other Americans likewise. It’s a shame that I hope to rectify soon.

Now that the introduction is out of the way, it was time to move through a doorway and head up to the grounds of the actual fort itself. While the main part of the fort is missing a bit of the original structure, including the entire outer wall, the part that we do have in very impressive. The major locations include guard towers (think castle turrets), Commander’s quarters, barracks, the trading post, an area where people got whipped as punishment, and a huge flag pole. While the majority of the buildings are repetitive (a barrack is a barrack etc.), exploring some of the larger buildings such as the trading post was awesome. stocked with facsimile items for sale, and manned by a living history interpreter, this was probably my favorite part of the trip. Hearing some anecdotes about the fort and some information of the river was cool, and he took time to point out some interesting things I should do (like a path to the river through the woods) that I probably would not have done otherwise.

I was worried that bringing a five year old was a bad call at first, but he really enjoyed exploring the fort. running up stairs to see if there were cannons and looking out the windows to see the river was exiting for him. I’d like to go back the next time a big event is going on, as I think seeing more volunteers and getting the idea of how old this place was would benefit him. He’s still a bit young to understand exactly what was happening, but he had fun.

Conclusion:

All-in-all this was a great quick weekend trip if you live in or around the Kansas City area. It’s inexpensive, fun, and educational. Sitting a few months out from my trip, I kind of wish I would have waited a bit longer now that mask mandates are going away, but I had set aside this time in April, and the last thing I needed was yet another excuse as to why I needed to not go. If I go back for any sort of event, I will be sure to do some kind of an update.

Stay tuned next time, for part 2 of History Boy Summer, where I go to the site of one of the more interesting Civil War battles, local or not. For another museum exhibit I really enjoyed, check out my review of Stonehenge: Spirit and Science of Place from a few years ago. Also, keep up with this series by looking at the tag for History Boy Summer. And yes, the title is making fun of that cringe Chet Hanks song that I will undoubtedly forget about the existence of a few years down the road and wonder why I went with this as the header.

#19thCentury #dayTrip #Featured #fort #FortOsage #Historical #History #HistoryBoySummer #HistoryTour #Independence #Kansas #kansasCity #KS #livingHistory #military #missouri #MissouriRiver #MO #museum #MuseumTrips #nineteenthCentury #Sibley #travel #warOf1812

Stephen K.

2021-06-14 08:39:03

REVIEW: Fort Osage–opening of the American West (1983)

A book by Rhoda Wooldridge

To prepare for a trip to historic Fort Osage in Sibley, Missouri, I actually tracked down an old book from around the time I was born, seemingly one of the only ones on the actual Fort Itself called Fort Osage–opening of the American West. I did this because I wasn’t sure if the tour guides would be present at all during the tail-end of the Covid-19 Global Pandemic, and wanted to ensure that I would enjoy my trip. I’m sure there are other books out there, such as diaries published from George C. Sibley (The fort’s commander), but tracking these down are equally crazy and likely written in a manner that is not as palatable as this paperback.

It’s a quick read at 140 pages, and doesn’t spend all that much time going into gross details about the people involved. You can tell that the contents were constructed from diaries and logs related to the operations of the Fort itself, as the narrative seems to be mostly about Mr. Sibley and his business transactions.

When Lewis and Clark, on their expedition of 1804 marked the promontory at the bend of the Missouri River near the present-day town of Sibley in Jackson county for the first site west of the Mississippi, our national hold on the West was feeble. The boundaries of the Louisiana purchase were undefined. England, with its large fur trading companies, was encroaching from the north; Spain was moving in on the southwest; and the Pacific coast was up for grabs to any country who would take it. Even Congress and men in Washington considered it a matter of not so quiet desperation.

The war of 1812 and the subsequent treaty of Ghent that followed the building of Fort Osage settles the danger of English encroachment on the old Northwest Territory. A treaty with Spain in 1819 defined the boundaries of the Southwest. These boundaries, which the opening of the Santa Fe trade in 1821 more or less obscured, became recognized boundaries. American trappers and traders looked forward to the West – to the Pacific in the north, the west, and the south. All this was opened with the building of Fort Osage in 1808 and there it stood for 16 years as a citadel between the Mississippi and the Rocky mountains.

Back of the book that I painstakingly transcribed since this book is so rare lol

There are some VERY interesting tidbits inside including descriptions of customs performed by the handful of Indian tribes mentioned. For example, at one point Mr. Sibley was confused as to why Kansas Indians had painted their faces black and were wailing in unison with tears streaming down their faces. He had assumed it was some kind of funeral rite, but was alarmed when his Osage advisor Sans Oreilles (lit “No Ears” in French) told him that they do this as a dark ritual as penance for something bad they are about to do. In this case, that was try to rob the trading post by cover of nightfall, a situation that got their tribe banned for a time.

Another interesting aside, was a story of the discovery of an Indian burial mound wherein the grave of an esteemed British officer had been buried by a tribe that Great Britain had ties with. He was mummified sitting upright in a chair in full-uniform and buried with grave goods befitting royalty. This puzzled everyone, and they wondered who this man was that he got such a lavish burial. How I wish they actually kept this as a verifiable record, as it sounds very cool.

The book is full of these little chapters, you can tell the author went through the original documents looking for interesting items, as the pages are peppered with them. Rather than being a dull slog through the everyday bookkeeping of a trading post (as I’m sure she read), we get the “greatest hits”.

It’s a shame this book isn’t available in digital format nor left in print at all since 1983, as it seems to be pretty good. The local publisher seems to only print books related to Alcoholics Anonymous and other rehabilitation plans, and whilst being a noble cause, its sad to see local history go by the wayside. Thankfully, this book doesn’t appear to be impossible to find. This copy was around ten dollars on Ebay, and I’ve seen brand-new and still shrink-wrapped copies up for grabs for around 20 dollars.

If you have an interest in frontier history or The War of 1812, this might be something to track down, but I’m sure people that live locally or around this area would likely enjoy it a bit more. While a bit outdated in vernacular and lacking any sort of footnotes, the book is far from a scholarly text in any way, but its enjoyable and helped me learn a lot more about the area I live, and some of the history of a time that most American schooling seems to entirely bypass.

This review is part of my 2021 series History Boy Summer, which you can read more of following this LINK.

#History #HistoryBoySummer #HistoryTour #kansasCity #KansasCityMissouri #LocalHistory #missouri #MuseumTrips #Sibley #warOf1812

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