Voice of East

2022-06-11 13:20:44

President Putin’s Insight Into State Sovereignty Is Instructive For All Countries

President Putin’s Insight Into State Sovereignty Is Instructive For All Countries

By Andrew Korybko

At the end of the day, while the bifurcation of the world into sovereign states and colonies isn’t as clear-cut as some might think, President Putin’s observation is nonetheless an extremely accurate albeit simplified way of understanding the global systemic transition to multipolarity. Countries will either voluntarily remain colonies of the US-led West or will follow China, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Venezuela, and other countries’ paths to strengthen their sovereignty.

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President Putin shared some crucial insight into state sovereignty late last week while meeting with young entrepreneurs ahead of this month’s Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). In his words, “there is no in-between, no intermediate state: either a country is sovereign, or it is a colony, no matter what the colonies are called.” The Russian leader elaborated that there are at least four forms of sovereignty: military-political; economic; technological; and social. Regarding the last one, he added that “I am talking about the ability of society to come together to resolve national challenges, to respect history, culture, language, and all the ethnicities that share a single territory. This consolidation of society is one of the core conditions for growth. Without consolidation, things will fall apart.”

The global systemic transition to multipolarity unprecedentedly accelerated after the commencement of Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and the promulgation of the US-led West’s counterproductive anti-Russian sanctions in response. America successfully reasserted its declining unipolar hegemony over Europe by coercing its vassal states into carrying out massive self-inflicted damage to their own economies by complying with its anti-Russian demands. None of those states, as well as the non-Western ones like Japan and Singapore that also followed suit, can be described as sovereign. To the contrary, they epitomize the post-modern colonies that President Putin described in his speech, which will now be explained.

Their leaderships intent to enhance their military capabilities is nothing more than an undeclared submission to their American overlord’s plans to use their people as cannon fodder in the proxy wars that it plans to provoke across the Global South all throughout the New Cold War, especially in (West) Africa. They clearly have no political nor economic sovereignty after complying with the US’ anti-Russian sanctions, while their technological competitiveness will be eroded the longer that they remain American vassal states. As for their social sovereignty, these puppet states with the exception of Japan and Singapore have absolutely no respect for traditional values, which they regard as “racist”. That has in turn led to a lot of social unrest over the past decade.

By contrast, Russia’s military sovereignty is universally known, especially following its successful development of hypersonic vehicles. On the political front, President Putin made it clear that his country will never concede on issues of national interest in order to please someone else. His civilization-state’s economic and technological sovereignty is solid but can still improve, which it’s actively in the process of doing. As for its social sovereignty, Russia is leading the world in showing how it’s possible to respect traditional values in the contemporary context. President Putin’s “populist statism” and “healthy/moderate/reasonable conservatism” can collectively be described as an unofficial ideology that other countries can also implement in their own way too.

Of these four forms of sovereignty, the social dimension is arguably the most important, without which a country will inevitably fall apart exactly as the Russian leader warned. Therein lies the significance of what can be called “Democratic Security”, which refers to counter-Hybrid Warfare tactics and strategies. They’re bespoke depending upon the country within which it’s being practiced as all as the specific context, but all such approaches aim to solidify the social solidarity upon which prosperous and secure states are built, without which Color Revolutions become a lot easier to provoke. States can only achieve military-political, economic, and technological sovereignty if their societies are stable and comprehensively protected from Hybrid War threats.

President Putin’s insight is of immense importance to the Global South, especially since these countries are expected to become the scene of countless proxy wars throughout the New Cold War. Although some of them voted against Russia at the UN under US-led Western duress, literally none of them followed through by sanctioning it, which shows that they’re all interested in retaining at least some degree of sovereignty. Those like Ethiopia and India that didn’t vote against Russia are now targeted by various pressure campaigns, though they’re impressively still holding their own and haven’t backtracked on their principled neutrality towards the Ukrainian Conflict one bit. That’s because their people support their government’s stance, and despite certain fault lines, their societies largely remain united.

Each part of the world will come to have their own leaders who’ll show everyone else the optimal way to strengthen their sovereignty in the four dimensions that President Putin pinpointed in his speech. By region, these are: China in East Asia; Vietnam in Southeast Asia; India in South Asia; Iran, Israel, and Turkey in West Asia; Ethiopia and South Africa in Africa; Hungary and Serbia in Europe; and Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela in Latin America. The means through which they practice “Democratic Security” differ due to their unique social situations, but they all nevertheless strive to strengthen their social solidarity and therefore their sovereignty. That said, they’re also all in one way or another connected to the Western-centric model of globalization, which in turn somewhat limits their sovereignty.

Russia never fully participated in this system, which is why the economic and financial consequences of the US-led West’s sanctions haven’t all that adversely affected it. This means that the country is comparatively much more sovereign than most, though it would be inaccurate to describe its partners who are more closely integrated into this model as “colonies”. India, for instance, aspires to become a global power even though it’s centrally positioned within the Western-centric model of globalization. That observation goes to show that proper investment and trade policies can mitigate the neo-colonial impact of participating in this system. After all, China is extremely sovereign despite benefiting so much from this system too after showing the world how to beat the US at its own globalization game.

At the end of the day, while the bifurcation of the world into sovereign states and colonies isn’t as clear-cut as some might think, President Putin’s observation is nonetheless an extremely accurate albeit simplified way of understanding the global systemic transition to multipolarity. Countries will either voluntarily remain colonies of the US-led West or will follow China, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Venezuela, and other countries’ paths to strengthen their sovereignty. Those that opt for the second choice, however, must practice robust “Democratic Security” policies in order to preempt the Hybrid War plots that’ll be unleashed against them as punishment. They should also continue working more closely together in order to create a non-Western model of globalization that more adequately serves their interests.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management

#China #Ethiopia #Geopolitics #Iran #Multipolarity #Pakistan #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Andrew Korybko

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specialising in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road…

^{Voice of East}

Voice of East

2023-03-03 15:00:01

Towards Tri-Multipolarity: The Golden Billion, The Sino-Russo Entente, And The Global South

Towards Tri-Multipolarity: The Golden Billion, The Sino-Russo Entente, And The Global South

By Andrew Korybko

The global systemic transition’s impending evolution towards tri-multipolarity could see the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South becoming the most prominent poles in International Relations, below which would be rising powers and regional groups. All actors would balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels, which might result in stabilizing global affairs much more than the prior unipolar and bi-multipolar orders did.

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International Relations are hurtling towards tripolarity at an astounding pace as a result of the dramatic events that unfolded over the past year and especially the last month. Those readers who haven’t closely been following this megatrend might be taken aback by this assessment, hence the need for them to review the following analyses that’ll place everything into its appropriate context. After listing them, they’ll then be summarized for convenience before explaining what might soon come next:

Background Briefings

* 7 October 2021: “Towards Bi-Multipolarity”

* 16 December 2021: “The Neo-NAM: From Vision To Reality”

* 15 March 2022: “Why Did The U.S. Prioritize Containing Russia Over China?”

* 26 March 2022: “Russia Is Waging an Existential Struggle in Defence of Its Independence & Sovereignty”

* 22 May 2022: “Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations”

* 6 June 2022: “India Is The Irreplaceable Balancing Force In The Global Systemic Transition”

* 20 June 2022: “Towards Dual-Tripolarity: An Indian Grand Strategy For The Age Of Complexity”

* 5 August 2022: “The Russian Foreign Ministry Comprehensively Explained The Global Systemic Transition”

* 1 October 2022: “The Ukrainian Conflict Might Have Already Derailed China’s Superpower Trajectory”

* 29 October 2022: “The Importance Of Properly Framing The New Cold War”

* 19 November 2022: “Analysing The US-Chinese-Russian-Indian Interplay In The Global Systemic Transition”

* 29 November 2022: “The Evolution Of Key Players’ Perceptions Across The Course Of The Ukrainian Conflict”

* 14 December 2022: “India’s Principled Neutrality Reaps Grand Strategic Dividends”

* 28 December 2022: “The Five Ways That The US Successfully Reasserted Its Hegemony Over Europe In 2022”

* 1 January 2023: “The New York Times Tried To Throw Shade On India’s Global Rise”

* 7 January 2023: “India’s Global South Summit Is The Most Important Multilateral Event In Decades”

* 11 January 2023: “Exposing Western Media’s Narrative Agenda In Spinning The Sino-American New Détente”

* 4 February 2023: “The Chinese Balloon Incident Could Decisively Shift China’s & The US’ ‘Deep State’ Dynamics”

* 14 February 2023: “NATO’s Self-Declared ‘Race Of Logistics’ Confirms The Bloc’s Military-Industrial Crisis”

* 26 February 2023: “China Compellingly Appears To Be Recalibrating Its Approach To The NATO-Russian Proxy War”

* 28 February 2023: “Just How Drastically Would The World Change If China Armed Russia?”

* 1 March 2023: “Global Fora Like The UN & G20 Are Gradually Losing Their Importance”

* 1 March 2023: “Germany Is Lying: Chinese Arms Shipments To Russia Wouldn’t Violate International Law”

The “New Détente”

To oversimplify the confluence of these complex trends, the US prioritized containing Russia in order to facilitate its containment of China, ergo the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict that it provoked via Moscow’s ongoing special operation there. Throughout the course of the NATO-Russian proxy war that followed, the US successfully reasserted its unipolar hegemony over the EU while destabilizing the globalized system upon which China’s grand strategy depends, thus giving it an edge over Beijing.

This in turn prompted President Xi to initiate an attempted “New Détente” during mid-November’s G20 Summit in Bali, during which time he hoped that China and the US could eventually reach a series of mutual compromises aimed at establishing a “new normal” in their ties. The purpose behind doing so was to delay the end of the bi-multipolar world order within which these two superpowers exerted the most influence over International Relations, which was challenged by India’s rise over the past year.

India’s Game-Changing Influence

That South Asian state became a globally significant Great Power during this time as a result of its masterful balancing act between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the jointly BRICS– & SCO-led Global South of which it’s a part. Its kingmaker role in the New Cold War between them over the direction of the global systemic transition enabled the rest of the Global South to rise in India’s wake, thus revolutionizing International Relations by accelerating the emergence of tri-multipolarity.

The aforementioned sequence of events imbued the Sino-American “New Détente” with a sense of urgency since both superpowers had self-interested reasons for regaining joint control of these processes, though their attempted rapprochement was unexpectedly derailed by the balloon incident. The resultantly renewed influence of hardline factions over policymaking that occurred in the aftermath of that incident abruptly ended their incipient talks and placed them on the trajectory of intense rivalry.

China’s Grand Strategic Recalculations

In parallel with the abovementioned development, NATO declared that it’s in a so-called “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with Russia, which implied that it’ll redouble its military support to Kiev even at the expense of meeting its own members’ minimum national security needs. Should that bloc succeed in making a breakthrough along the Line of Control (LOC), then it could catalyse the worst-case scenario of Russia’s “Balkanization” if those disadvantageous military-strategic dynamics spiral out of control.

Both President Putin and his predecessor Medvedev recently warned about that possibility, which remains unlikely for now but still can’t be discounted, thus contributing to China’s gradual recalibration of its approach to the NATO-Russian proxy war when coupled with the end of the “New Détente”. This directly led to the People’s Republic seriously considering the dispatch of lethal aid to its strategic partner in order to offset that worst-case scenario, thus prompting sanctions threats from the West.

“The Great Trifurcation”

In the event that China feels forced by NATO to aid Russia in such a way and the Golden Billion imposes sanctions against it in response, then it’s expected that a US-initiated Chinese-European “decoupling” along the lines of the prior US-initiated Russian-European one could potentially follow. Reuters’ exclusive report on Wednesday citing four unnamed US officials and other sources extended credence to the preceding scenario by revealing that the Golden Billion is indeed discussing multilateral sanctions.

Should those two developments take place – China arming Russia and then being sanctioned by the Golden Billion in a way that provokes their “decoupling” (whether gradual or instantaneous) – then International Relations would enter a period of tri-multipolarity characterized by the prominence of three poles that exert the most influence over global affairs, but whose influence nevertheless wouldn’t be absolute since it’ll be kept in check to an extent by rising powers and regional groups.

The Tri-Multipolar World Order

The three expected poles are the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South that’ll likely continue informally assembling into a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”). Within the last-mentioned will reside rising powers like Brazil, Iran, South Africa, and Turkiye, among others, alongside regional groups like the African Union (AU), ASEAN, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).

Each of these three categories of actors – the three poles as well as the rising powers and regional groups that sit below the former in this informal international hierarchy – are expected to balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels. India’s role will be the most important of them all since it’s poised to facilitate trade between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente in the event that their potential “decoupling” is taken to an extreme, which can’t be ruled out.

India’s Kingmaker Role

Furthermore, India’s earlier virtual hosting of the Voice Of Global South Summit positioned this civilization-state as the centre of gravity for its fellow developing peers, which bolsters the likelihood that the Neo-NAM will continue informally assembling around it. From there, India can promote its own financial, technological, and other platforms in order to provide Global South states with a neutral third choice between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente’s respective ones in the New Cold War.

Those rising powers and regional groups that participate within the unofficially Indian-led Neo-NAM could also develop their own platforms too, but India’s might become the standard for facilitating engagement between them at their early stages. In parallel, global fora like the UN and G20 will no longer have much significance other than functioning as talking clubs, while interests-driven and regional groups will replace their prior role in promoting tangible cooperation between countries.

Concluding Thoughts

The global systemic transition’s impending evolution towards tri-multipolarity could see the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South becoming the most prominent poles in International Relations, below which would be rising powers and regional groups. All actors would balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels, which might result in stabilizing global affairs much more than the prior unipolar and bi-multipolar orders did.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management

#China #Geopolitics #India #Russia #USA

Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations - TheAltWorld

The success of this project will help the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition

^{Andrew Korybko (The Alternative World)}

Voice of East

2024-06-08 17:00:57

Modi Sent An Unmistakable Message To China By Thanking Taiwan’s Leader For His Congratulations

Modi Sent An Unmistakable Message To China By Thanking Taiwan’s Leader For His Congratulations

By Andrew Korybko

Modi’s seemingly innocuous but deliberately scandalous tweet conveyed the message that India is prepared to play hardball with China during his third term.

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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning confirmed on Thursday that her country has officially protested to India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly thanked Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te on X for congratulating him on his re-election. She explained that “India has made serious political commitments on [the one-China principle] and is supposed to recognize, be alarmed about and resist the Taiwan authorities’ political calculations”, hence why Beijing is up in arms about this tweet.

The Indian leader knew what he was doing though since he intended to send an unmistakable signal to China as the first manifestation of his third term’s foreign policy. These two Asian Great Powers have been embroiled in a fierce competition over the past four years that almost brought them to the brink of war in summer 2020 after their forces lethally clashed over the Galwan River Valley. The resultant border impasse toxified their ties and now appears to finally be frustrating Prime Minister Modi.

Multiple rounds of negotiations failed to resolve this dispute, especially India’s allegation that Chinese forces remain on Delhi’s side of the Line of Actual Control between them in the Himalayas after having illegally crossed into there in summer 2020, which it claims was the reason behind the aforesaid clashes. Instead of trying to freeze their dispute, China escalated matters by reaffirming its claims to India’s Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing considers to be “South Tibet” despite only briefly controlling it in 1962.

India is also closely monitoring China’s ongoing border talks with Bhutan due to concerns that Beijing could obtain control over the Doklam Plateau from which it could then threaten the “Chicken’s Neck” connecting “mainland India” with its seven North-eastern States. On top of that, some speculate that China clandestinely armed militants in Manipur ahead of last spring’s unrest, while intelligence officials accused China of masterminding a massive misinformation warfare campaign last fall.

Observers’ opinions about the abovementioned issues are unimportant since all that matters is that Prime Minister Modi believes that they represent continued Chinese meddling in Indian affairs. With that in mind, his tweet can be interpreted as a message to China that two can play this game and that India will no longer remain on the defensive, instead making its own moves whenever it sees fit. Thanking the Taiwanese leader for his congratulations appears harmless but is actually very offensive to China.

From Beijing’s perspective, it suggests that Prime Minister Modi considers Lai to be an equally legitimate leader in the eyes of the international community, which in turn implies tacit acceptance of Taiwanese independence that’s at odds with Delhi’s official policy. India is no small player on the world stage, having grown in renown in recent years as a result of its masterful multi-alignment between top power centres throughout the course of the New Cold War, so this move has immense symbolism.

As the self-styled Voice of the Global South and the world’s most populous country, the words and innuendo of any Indian leader carry lots of weight in terms of reshaping perceptions, much more so than those of his peers in tiny European countries like Lithuania who’ve earlier dabbled in the Taiwan issue. For reasons totally independent of the US’, India could follow that country’s newfound policy of tacitly recalibrating its political – and perhaps eventually military – ties towards Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

The unmistakable message that Prime Minister Modi just sent through his seemingly innocuous but deliberately scandalous tweet is that he’s prepared to play hardball with China during his third term. China can either withdraw to its pre-Galwan position in the Himalayas, abandon its domestically targeted misinformation warfare operations, stop talking about Arunachal Pradesh, and cut off its alleged support of militants in Manipur or deal with the “new normal” of closer Indian-Taiwanese relations.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management

#China #Geopolitics #India #Taiwan

Taiwan-Lithuania Ties Face Uncertainty Two Years After Taiwan Office Opened

Despite progress in relations, some analysts urge caution over a possible Lithuanian political shift and efforts to normalize relations with Beijing

^{William Yang (Voice of America (VOA News))}

Voice of East

2023-05-01 06:30:26

It’s Not Surprising That The Pentagon Leaks Claimed That The Global South Is Multi-Aligning

It’s Not Surprising That The Pentagon Leaks Claimed That The Global South Is Multi-Aligning

By Andrew Korybko

The Washington Post’s latest report about the Pentagon leaks proves that there are very real limits to the US’ influence over the Global South nowadays, which discredits the expectation that it can force every country to take its side against Russia and China. Be that as it may, the strategic situation also isn’t as dire as that outlet fearmongered since the US still has considerable influence in Pakistan and Brazil to balance out its comparatively lesser influence in the Central Asian Republics and complete lack thereof over India.

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Contemporary Geopolitics

The Washington Post (WaPo) published their latest report about the Pentagon leaks on Saturday headlined “Key nations sit out U.S. standoff with Russia, China, leaks show”. No serious observer should be surprised, however, that Global South states like Pakistan, India, the Central Asian Republics (CAR), and Brazil are multi-aligning in the New Cold War instead of decisively taking the US’ side. This piece will critique WaPo’s reporting of those countries’ policies and share some concise insight into them too.

Pakistan

Beginning with Pakistan, it was always a pipedream for the US to expect to that this country would ever meaningfully distance itself from China since its future economic prospects are so dependent on trade and investment with the People’s Republic. Its decision to abstain from anti-Russian UNGA Resolutions can be understood in this way since taking the US’ side on this global issue would have prompted suspicions from China of the post-modern coup regime’s grand strategic intentions in the New Cold War.

Despite Pakistan’s official foreign policy not having changed since the US-backed but superficially “democratic” regime change against Imran Khan one year ago, Washington still succeeded in derailing that South Asian state’s geostrategic breakout trajectory. The cascading crises that followed his ouster paralyzed Pakistan precisely at the point when it needed to focus on pioneering its place in the emerging world order amidst the unprecedentedly accelerated global systemic transition to multipolarity.

Considering this, it can be concluded that the US received a major return on its investment into that event since the so-called “Wolfowitz Doctrine” was implemented without any problems. That concept preaches the need for the US to proactively thwart the rise of any country that could potentially pose a threat to its regional interests, which was indisputably accomplished in Pakistan’s case since it might never be able to regain its lost multipolar momentum after losing out over the past historic year.

India

Pakistan’s geostrategic plight stands in stark contrast to India’s rapid rise as a globally significant Great Power throughout the same time. Its pragmatic policy of principled neutrality in the Russian-US dimension of the New Cold War reaped grand strategic dividends by enabling Delhi to perfectly position itself between those two leading players in the global systemic transition. India’s example inspired other Global South states to follow its lead, thus bestowing it unique influence within this group of countries.

The Pentagon leaks’ allegation that National Security Advisor Doval told his Russian counterpart that Delhi won’t go against Moscow at multilateral venues corresponds with the abovementioned policy. Taking the US’ side against Russia at these events, especially the G20 ones that it’s hosting this year, would have catalysed a chain reaction culminating in India subordinating itself to the US as its largest-ever proxy state and thus abandoning its multi-alignment policy that’s inspired the entire Global South.

Although WaPo presented this policy in a sceptical way vis-à-vis the US’ interests, it’s also true that India remains very close to the US in spite of its refusal to comply with its zero-sum demands against Russia. Those two have shared interests when it comes to managing China’s rise, but nevertheless, even that important commonality between them doesn’t mean that India is the US’ ally against the People’s Republic nor that it has any interest in integrating its forces with NATO’s like its Quad partners are doing.

The Central Asian Republics

Giving credit where it’s due, the Pentagon leaks were spot-on about the CARs’ strategic calculations in the New Cold War regarding their blatant opportunism. It’s indeed the case that they’re “eager to work with whoever offers the most immediate deliverables, which for now is China”, in order to lessen what their leaderships perceive as their so-called dependence on Russia. These motivations create openings for the US that make Moscow uncomfortable since it fears America’s regional military encroachment.

It was with these concerns in mind that Russian Defence Minister Shoigu told his SCO counterparts in Delhi last week that his country is “increasing the combat readiness of its bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan amid attempts by the United States and its allies to restore its military presence in Central Asia.” Quite clearly, the Kremlin is aware of the Pentagon’s regional plots and wants to proactively thwart them, including those unconventional ones regarding the US’ support of various terrorist groups there.

No CAR would ever agree to host the ETIM or ISIS, for instance, but some like CSTO-member Tajikistan and newly Russian-aligned Uzbekistan might be tempted by the US’ creative cooperation proposals to expand their relations with its armed forces. That said, their growing economic ties with China could potentially deter them from doing so if Beijing became just as uncomfortable with this scenario as Moscow presently is due to its deteriorating ties with Washington making it fear US encirclement.

Brazil

The last part of WaPo’s report about the Pentagon leaks that’s worth critiquing concerns Brazilian President Lula’s foreign policy and in particular his so-called “peace club” proposal for mediating the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. As was earlier analysed at the time, “Russia’s Reported Approval Of Lula’s Peace Rhetoric Isn’t Surprising” since the optics of him extending partial blame on the West for this conflict – however insincerely he may be doing so – work against the latter’s soft power interests.

Even so, this recently re-elected and now three-time leader of Latin America’s largest country is still politically aligned with the US against Russia in the most geostrategically significant conflict since World War II as proven by his government’s official stance towards that proxy war that was documented here. Lula’s chief foreign policy advisor also confirmed the aforesaid assessment in a lengthy interview, which was followed by his boss declaring that he won’t visit Russia unless it resumes peace talks with Kiev.

These three analyses here, here, and here detail Lula’s grand strategy, which can be simplified as his desire to de-dollarize with China simultaneously with proselytizing “wokeism” across the world through the global influence network that he reportedly proposed creating with the US Democrats during his trip to DC. Relations with Russia are considered expendable if unilateral sacrifices are required to retain his ideological allies’ trust, hence why the US shouldn’t read too deeply into Lula’s superficial peace rhetoric.

Concluding Thoughts

As proven by WaPo’s latest report about the Pentagon leaks, there are very real limits to the US’ influence over the Global South nowadays, which discredits the expectation that it can force every country to take its side against Russia and China. Be that as it may, the strategic situation also isn’t as dire as that outlet fearmongered since the US still has considerable influence in Pakistan and Brazil to balance out its comparatively lesser influence in the CARs and complete lack thereof over India.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management

#Brazil #CAR #CentralAsianRepublics #China #Geopolitics #GlobalSouth #India #Multipolarity #Pakistan #Russia #USA

Lula’s Planned Influence Network With The US Democrats Will Serve Liberal-Globalist Interests

The purpose of this incipient network is supposedly to champion so-called “progressive” causes, which is a euphemism for those liberal-globalist ones that the newly “woke” Workers’ Party and the US Democrats share.

^{Andrew Korybko (Andrew Korybko's Newsletter)}

Voice of East

2023-03-03 15:00:01

Towards Tri-Multipolarity: The Golden Billion, The Sino-Russo Entente, And The Global South

Towards Tri-Multipolarity: The Golden Billion, The Sino-Russo Entente, And The Global South

By Andrew Korybko

The global systemic transition’s impending evolution towards tri-multipolarity could see the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South becoming the most prominent poles in International Relations, below which would be rising powers and regional groups. All actors would balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels, which might result in stabilizing global affairs much more than the prior unipolar and bi-multipolar orders did.

---

International Relations are hurtling towards tripolarity at an astounding pace as a result of the dramatic events that unfolded over the past year and especially the last month. Those readers who haven’t closely been following this megatrend might be taken aback by this assessment, hence the need for them to review the following analyses that’ll place everything into its appropriate context. After listing them, they’ll then be summarized for convenience before explaining what might soon come next:

Background Briefings

* 7 October 2021: “Towards Bi-Multipolarity”

* 16 December 2021: “The Neo-NAM: From Vision To Reality”

* 15 March 2022: “Why Did The U.S. Prioritize Containing Russia Over China?”

* 26 March 2022: “Russia Is Waging an Existential Struggle in Defence of Its Independence & Sovereignty”

* 22 May 2022: “Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations”

* 6 June 2022: “India Is The Irreplaceable Balancing Force In The Global Systemic Transition”

* 20 June 2022: “Towards Dual-Tripolarity: An Indian Grand Strategy For The Age Of Complexity”

* 5 August 2022: “The Russian Foreign Ministry Comprehensively Explained The Global Systemic Transition”

* 1 October 2022: “The Ukrainian Conflict Might Have Already Derailed China’s Superpower Trajectory”

* 29 October 2022: “The Importance Of Properly Framing The New Cold War”

* 19 November 2022: “Analysing The US-Chinese-Russian-Indian Interplay In The Global Systemic Transition”

* 29 November 2022: “The Evolution Of Key Players’ Perceptions Across The Course Of The Ukrainian Conflict”

* 14 December 2022: “India’s Principled Neutrality Reaps Grand Strategic Dividends”

* 28 December 2022: “The Five Ways That The US Successfully Reasserted Its Hegemony Over Europe In 2022”

* 1 January 2023: “The New York Times Tried To Throw Shade On India’s Global Rise”

* 7 January 2023: “India’s Global South Summit Is The Most Important Multilateral Event In Decades”

* 11 January 2023: “Exposing Western Media’s Narrative Agenda In Spinning The Sino-American New Détente”

* 4 February 2023: “The Chinese Balloon Incident Could Decisively Shift China’s & The US’ ‘Deep State’ Dynamics”

* 14 February 2023: “NATO’s Self-Declared ‘Race Of Logistics’ Confirms The Bloc’s Military-Industrial Crisis”

* 26 February 2023: “China Compellingly Appears To Be Recalibrating Its Approach To The NATO-Russian Proxy War”

* 28 February 2023: “Just How Drastically Would The World Change If China Armed Russia?”

* 1 March 2023: “Global Fora Like The UN & G20 Are Gradually Losing Their Importance”

* 1 March 2023: “Germany Is Lying: Chinese Arms Shipments To Russia Wouldn’t Violate International Law”

The “New Détente”

To oversimplify the confluence of these complex trends, the US prioritized containing Russia in order to facilitate its containment of China, ergo the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict that it provoked via Moscow’s ongoing special operation there. Throughout the course of the NATO-Russian proxy war that followed, the US successfully reasserted its unipolar hegemony over the EU while destabilizing the globalized system upon which China’s grand strategy depends, thus giving it an edge over Beijing.

This in turn prompted President Xi to initiate an attempted “New Détente” during mid-November’s G20 Summit in Bali, during which time he hoped that China and the US could eventually reach a series of mutual compromises aimed at establishing a “new normal” in their ties. The purpose behind doing so was to delay the end of the bi-multipolar world order within which these two superpowers exerted the most influence over International Relations, which was challenged by India’s rise over the past year.

India’s Game-Changing Influence

That South Asian state became a globally significant Great Power during this time as a result of its masterful balancing act between the US-led West’s Golden Billion and the jointly BRICS– & SCO-led Global South of which it’s a part. Its kingmaker role in the New Cold War between them over the direction of the global systemic transition enabled the rest of the Global South to rise in India’s wake, thus revolutionizing International Relations by accelerating the emergence of tri-multipolarity.

The aforementioned sequence of events imbued the Sino-American “New Détente” with a sense of urgency since both superpowers had self-interested reasons for regaining joint control of these processes, though their attempted rapprochement was unexpectedly derailed by the balloon incident. The resultantly renewed influence of hardline factions over policymaking that occurred in the aftermath of that incident abruptly ended their incipient talks and placed them on the trajectory of intense rivalry.

China’s Grand Strategic Recalculations

In parallel with the abovementioned development, NATO declared that it’s in a so-called “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with Russia, which implied that it’ll redouble its military support to Kiev even at the expense of meeting its own members’ minimum national security needs. Should that bloc succeed in making a breakthrough along the Line of Control (LOC), then it could catalyse the worst-case scenario of Russia’s “Balkanization” if those disadvantageous military-strategic dynamics spiral out of control.

Both President Putin and his predecessor Medvedev recently warned about that possibility, which remains unlikely for now but still can’t be discounted, thus contributing to China’s gradual recalibration of its approach to the NATO-Russian proxy war when coupled with the end of the “New Détente”. This directly led to the People’s Republic seriously considering the dispatch of lethal aid to its strategic partner in order to offset that worst-case scenario, thus prompting sanctions threats from the West.

“The Great Trifurcation”

In the event that China feels forced by NATO to aid Russia in such a way and the Golden Billion imposes sanctions against it in response, then it’s expected that a US-initiated Chinese-European “decoupling” along the lines of the prior US-initiated Russian-European one could potentially follow. Reuters’ exclusive report on Wednesday citing four unnamed US officials and other sources extended credence to the preceding scenario by revealing that the Golden Billion is indeed discussing multilateral sanctions.

Should those two developments take place – China arming Russia and then being sanctioned by the Golden Billion in a way that provokes their “decoupling” (whether gradual or instantaneous) – then International Relations would enter a period of tri-multipolarity characterized by the prominence of three poles that exert the most influence over global affairs, but whose influence nevertheless wouldn’t be absolute since it’ll be kept in check to an extent by rising powers and regional groups.

The Tri-Multipolar World Order

The three expected poles are the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South that’ll likely continue informally assembling into a new Non-Aligned Movement (“Neo-NAM”). Within the last-mentioned will reside rising powers like Brazil, Iran, South Africa, and Turkiye, among others, alongside regional groups like the African Union (AU), ASEAN, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).

Each of these three categories of actors – the three poles as well as the rising powers and regional groups that sit below the former in this informal international hierarchy – are expected to balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels. India’s role will be the most important of them all since it’s poised to facilitate trade between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente in the event that their potential “decoupling” is taken to an extreme, which can’t be ruled out.

India’s Kingmaker Role

Furthermore, India’s earlier virtual hosting of the Voice Of Global South Summit positioned this civilization-state as the centre of gravity for its fellow developing peers, which bolsters the likelihood that the Neo-NAM will continue informally assembling around it. From there, India can promote its own financial, technological, and other platforms in order to provide Global South states with a neutral third choice between the Golden Billion and the Sino-Russo Entente’s respective ones in the New Cold War.

Those rising powers and regional groups that participate within the unofficially Indian-led Neo-NAM could also develop their own platforms too, but India’s might become the standard for facilitating engagement between them at their early stages. In parallel, global fora like the UN and G20 will no longer have much significance other than functioning as talking clubs, while interests-driven and regional groups will replace their prior role in promoting tangible cooperation between countries.

Concluding Thoughts

The global systemic transition’s impending evolution towards tri-multipolarity could see the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South becoming the most prominent poles in International Relations, below which would be rising powers and regional groups. All actors would balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels, which might result in stabilizing global affairs much more than the prior unipolar and bi-multipolar orders did.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.

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Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations - TheAltWorld

The success of this project will help the world make progress in moving past the present bi-multipolar intermediary phase of the global systemic transition

^{Andrew Korybko (The Alternative World)}