Metaculus · lsabor · Aug 26, 2024 · Aug 26, 2024 · Aug 23, 2024 · Aug 24, 2024
diff --git a/.github/workflows/integration_tests.yml b/.github/workflows/integration_tests.yml
@@ -86,6 +86,7 @@ jobs:
           NEXT_PUBLIC_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY: ${{ secrets.NEXT_PUBLIC_TURNSTILE_SITE_KEY }}
           SECRET_KEY: ${{ secrets.SECRET_KEY }}
         run: |
+          poetry run ./manage.py migrate
           PLAYWRIGHT_BROWSERS_PATH=.venv scripts/run_integration_tests.sh
       - name: Create trace.zip
         if: always()

diff --git a/front_end/messages/en.json b/front_end/messages/en.json
@@ -397,7 +397,9 @@
   "total": "Total",
   "average": "Average",
   "score": "Score",
+  "coverage": "Coverage",
   "totalScore": "Total Score",
+  "totalTake": "Total Take", 
   "weightedAverageScore": "Weighted Average Score",
   "hIndex": "H-Index",
   "upvotes": "Upvotes",
@@ -617,6 +619,11 @@
   "scoringTerminology": "Scoring Terminology",
   "pearScoreInfo": "Your <link>Peer Score</link> on that question. If you see no score, then either the question has yet to resolve or you haven’t predicted it (or both!).",
   "totalPeerScoreInfo": "The sum of your <link>Peer Scores</link> on all questions in the tournament (but only those that close before the end of the tournament).",
+  "peerTakeInfo": "Your Take is the square of the sum of your peer scores or 0 if your total score is negative.",
+  "relativeScoreInfo": "Your <link>Relative Score</link> on that question. If you see no score, then either the question has yet to resolve or you haven’t predicted it (or both!).",
+  "totalRelativeScoreInfo": "The sum of your <link>Relative Scores</link> on all questions in the tournament (but only those that close before the end of the tournament).",
+  "relativeCoverageInfo": "The amount of the question or tournament that you covered.",
+  "relativeTakeInfo": "Your Take is your coverage times e to the power of your total score. (c*e^s)",
   "backgroundInfo": "Background Info",
   "parentBackgroundInfo": "Parent Question Background Info",
   "childBackgroundInfo": "Child Question Background Info",

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/(leaderboards)/contributions/components/project_contributions.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/(leaderboards)/contributions/components/project_contributions.tsx
@@ -5,24 +5,21 @@ import { FC } from "react";
 import InfoToggle from "@/components/ui/info_toggle";
 import SectionToggle from "@/components/ui/section_toggle";
 import LeaderboardApi from "@/services/leaderboard";
+import { Tournament } from "@/types/projects";
 
 type Props = {
-  projectId: number;
+  project: Tournament;
   userId: number;
 };
 
-const ProjectContributions: FC<Props> = async ({ projectId, userId }) => {
+const ProjectContributions: FC<Props> = async ({ project, userId }) => {
   const t = await getTranslations();
   const contributionsDetails = await LeaderboardApi.getContributions({
     type: "project",
     userId,
-    projectId,
+    projectId: project.id,
   });
 
-  const totalScore = contributionsDetails.contributions
-    .reduce((acc, contribution) => acc + (contribution.score ?? 0), 0)
-    .toFixed(2);
-
   return (
     <SectionToggle
       title={t("myScore")}
@@ -36,6 +33,11 @@ const ProjectContributions: FC<Props> = async ({ projectId, userId }) => {
                 {t("Question")}
               </th>
               <th className="p-2 text-right text-sm font-
6DB6
bold">{t("score")}</th>
+              {project.score_type === "relative_legacy_tournament" && (
+                <th className="p-2 text-right text-sm font-bold">
+                  {t("coverage")}
+                </th>
+              )}
             </tr>
           </thead>
           <tbody>
@@ -53,20 +55,46 @@ const ProjectContributions: FC<Props> = async ({ projectId, userId }) => {
                   </Link>
                 </td>
                 <td className="px-2 py-1 text-right text-sm font-bold text-orange-800 dark:text-orange-800-dark">
-                  {contribution.score?.toFixed(2)}
+                  {contribution.score ? contribution.score.toFixed(2) : "-"}
                 </td>
+                {project.score_type === "relative_legacy_tournament" && (
+                  <th className="p-2 text-right text-sm font-bold">
+                    {contribution.coverage
+                      ? `${(contribution.coverage * 100).toFixed(0)}%`
+                      : "0%"}
+                  </th>
+                )}
               </tr>
             ))}
           </tbody>
 
+          <tfoot>
+            <tr>
+              <th className="px-2 py-1 text-right text-sm">{t("totalTake")}</th>
+              <td className="px-2 py-1 text-right text-sm font-bold text-orange-800 dark:text-orange-800-dark">
+                {contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.take
+                  ? `${contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.take.toFixed(3)}`
+                  : "-"}
+              </td>
+            </tr>
+          </tfoot>
           <tfoot>
             <tr>
               <th className="px-2 py-1 text-right text-sm">
                 {t("totalScore")}
               </th>
               <td className="px-2 py-1 text-right text-sm font-bold text-orange-800 dark:text-orange-800-dark">
-                {totalScore}
+                {contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.score
+                  ? `${contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.score.toFixed(2)}`
+                  : "-"}
               </td>
+              {project.score_type === "relative_legacy_tournament" && (
+                <th className="p-2 text-right text-sm font-bold">
+                  {contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.coverage
+                    ? `${(contributionsDetails.leaderboard_entry.coverage * 100).toFixed(2)}%`
+                    : "0%"}
+                </th>
+              )}
             </tr>
           </tfoot>
         </table>
@@ -77,23 +105,71 @@ const ProjectContributions: FC<Props> = async ({ projectId, userId }) => {
           <dl className="m-0">
             <div className="m-2 flex text-sm">
               <dt className="mr-2 w-20 flex-none font-bold">{t("score")}</dt>
-              <dd>
-                {t.rich("pearScoreInfo", {
-                  link: (chunks) => (
-                    <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#peer-score"}>{chunks}</Link>
-                  ),
-                })}
-              </dd>
+              {project.score_type === "peer_tournament" ? (
+                <dd>
+                  {t.rich("pearScoreInfo", {
+                    link: (chunks) => (
+                      <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#peer-score"}>
+                        {chunks}
+                      </Link>
+                    ),
+                  })}
+                </dd>
+              ) : (
+                <dd>
+                  {t.rich("relativeScoreInfo", {
+                    link: (chunks) => (
+                      <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#relative-score"}>
+                        {chunks}
+                      </Link>
+                    ),
+                  })}
+                </dd>
+              )}
+            </div>
+            <div className="m-2 flex text-sm">
+              <dt className="mr-2 w-20 flex-none font-bold">
+                {t("totalScore")}
+              </dt>
+              {project.score_type === "peer_tournament" ? (
+                <dd>
+                  {t.rich("totalPeerScoreInfo", {
+                    link: (chunks) => (
+                      <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#peer-score"}>
+                        {chunks}
+                      </Link>
+                    ),
+                  })}
+                </dd>
+              ) : (
+                <dd>
+                  {t.rich("totalRelativeScoreInfo", {
+                    link: (chunks) => (
+                      <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#relative-score"}>
+                        {chunks}
+                      </Link>
+                    ),
+                  })}
+                </dd>
+              )}
             </div>
+            {project.score_type === "relative_legacy_tournament" && (
+              <div className="m-2 flex text-sm">
+                <dt className="mr-2 w-20 flex-none font-bold">
+                  {t("coverage")}
+                </dt>
+                <dd>{t("relativeCoverageInfo")}</dd>
+              </div>
+            )}
             <div className="m-2 flex text-sm">
-              <dt className="mr-2 w-20 flex-none font-bold">{t("total")}</dt>
-              <dd>
-                {t.rich("totalPeerScoreInfo", {
-                  link: (chunks) => (
-                    <Link href={"/help/scores-faq/#peer-score"}>{chunks}</Link>
-                  ),
-                })}
-              </dd>
+              <dt className="mr-2 w-20 flex-none font-bold">
+                {t("totalTake")}
+              </dt>
+              {project.score_type === "peer_tournament" ? (
+                <dd>{t("peerTakeInfo")}</dd>
+              ) : (
+                <dd>{t("relativeTakeInfo")}</dd>
+              )}
             </div>
           </dl>
         </div>

diff --git a/.../src/app/(main)/(leaderboards)/leaderboard/components/project_leaderboard_table/index.tsx b/.../src/app/(main)/(leaderboards)/leaderboard/components/project_leaderboard_table/index.tsx
@@ -38,6 +38,8 @@ const ProjectLeaderboardTable: FC<Props> = ({
     setStep((prev) => (isNil(prev) ? prev : prev * 10));
   };
 
+  const withCoverage =
+    leaderboardDetails.score_type === "relative_legacy_tournament";
   const withTake = leaderboardDetails.entries.some(
     (entry) => !isNil(entry.take)
   );
@@ -57,6 +59,9 @@ const ProjectLeaderboardTable: FC<Props> = ({
               {t("forecaster")}
             </TableHeader>
             <TableHeader className="text-right">{t("totalScore")}</TableHeader>
+            {withCoverage && (
+              <TableHeader className="text-right">{t("coverage")}</TableHeader>
+            )}
             {withTake && (
               <TableHeader className="text-right">{t("take")}</TableHeader>
             )}
@@ -76,6 +81,7 @@ const ProjectLeaderboardTable: FC<Props> = ({
               key={entry.user?.id ?? entry.aggregation_method}
               rowEntry={entry}
               userId={userId}
+              withCoverage={withCoverage}
               withTake={withTake}
               withPrize={withPrize}
               prizePool={prizePool}

diff --git a/.../app/(main)/(leaderboards)/leaderboard/components/project_leaderboard_table/table_row.tsx b/.../app/(main)/(leaderboards)/leaderboard/components/project_leaderboard_table/table_row.tsx
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import MedalIcon from "../../../components/medal_icon";
 
 type Props = {
   rowEntry: LeaderboardEntry;
+  withCoverage: boolean;
   withTake: boolean;
   withPrize: boolean;
   prizePool: number;
@@ -17,13 +18,23 @@ type Props = {
 
 const TableRow: FC<Props> = ({
   rowEntry,
+  withCoverage,
   withTake,
   withPrize,
   userId,
   prizePool,
 }) => {
-  const { user, aggregation_method, medal, rank, score, take, percent_prize } =
-    rowEntry;
+  const {
+    user,
+    aggregation_method,
+    medal,
+    rank,
+    score,
+    coverage,
+    take,
+    percent_prize,
+    prize,
+  } = rowEntry;
   const highlight = user?.id === userId;
 
   return (
@@ -42,15 +53,24 @@ const TableRow: FC<Props> = ({
             user ? `/accounts/profile/${user.id}/` : `questions/track-record/`
           }
         >
-          {user ? user.username : aggregation_method}
+          {user
+            ? user.username
+            : aggregation_method == "recency_weighted"
+              ? "Recency Weighted CP"
+              : aggregation_method}
         </Link>
       </Td>
       <Td className="text-right" highlight={highlight}>
-        {score.toFixed(2)}
+        {score.toFixed(3)}
       </Td>
+      {withCoverage && (
+        <Td className="text-right" highlight={highlight}>
+          {coverage ? `${(coverage * 100).toFixed(0)}%` : "-"}
+        </Td>
+      )}
       {withTake && (
         <Td className="text-right" highlight={highlight}>
-          {take?.toFixed(2)}
+          {take?.toFixed(3)}
         </Td>
       )}
       {withPrize && (
@@ -59,7 +79,7 @@ const TableRow: FC<Props> = ({
             {percent_prize ? `${(percent_prize * 100).toFixed(1)}%` : "-"}
           </Td>
           <Td className="text-right" highlight={highlight}>
-            {getUserPrize(prizePool, percent_prize)}
+            {prize && prize >= 10 ? "$" + prize.toFixed(0) : "-"}
           </Td>
         </>
       )}

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/(tournaments)/tournament/[slug]/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/(tournaments)/tournament/[slug]/page.tsx
@@ -134,7 +134,7 @@ export default async function TournamentSlug({
           />
           {currentUser && (
             <ProjectContributions
-              projectId={tournament.id}
+              project={tournament}
               userId={currentUser.id}
             />
           )}

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/forecast_maker/continuous_slider.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/forecast_maker/continuous_slider.tsx
@@ -92,11 +92,11 @@ const ContinuousSlider: FC<Props> = ({
                       defaultValue={weights[index]}
                       round={true}
                        => {
-                        const newWeights = normWeights([
+                        const newWeights = [
                           ...weights.slice(0, index),
                           value,
                           ...weights.slice(index + 1, forecast.length),
-                        ]);
+                        ];
                         onChange(forecast, newWeights);
                       }}
                       disabled={disabled}
@@ -110,10 +110,10 @@ const ContinuousSlider: FC<Props> = ({
                         ...forecast.slice(0, index),
                         ...forecast.slice(index + 1, forecast.length),
                       ];
-                      const newWeights = normWeights([
+                      const newWeights = [
                         ...weights.slice(0, index),
                         ...weights.slice(index + 1, forecast.length),
-                      ]);
+                      ];
                       onChange(newForecast, newWeights);
                     }}
                   />
@@ -126,8 +126,4 @@ const ContinuousSlider: FC<Props> = ({
   );
 };
 
-function normWeights(weights: number[]) {
-  return weights.map((x) => x / weights.reduce((a, b) => a + b));
-}
-
 export default ContinuousSlider;
diff --git a/...nents/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_conditional/forecast_maker_conditional_continuous.tsx b/...nents/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_conditional/forecast_maker_conditional_continuous.tsx
@@ -15,7 +15,6 @@ import { Quartiles, QuestionWithNumericForecasts } from "@/types/question";
 import {
   extractPrevNumericForecastValue,
   getNumericForecastDataset,
-  normalizeWeights,
 } from "@/utils/forecasts";
 import { computeQuartilesFromCDF } from "@/utils/math";
 
@@ -194,7 +193,7 @@ const ForecastMakerConditionalContinuous: FC<Props> = ({
               ...prevChoice.sliderForecast,
               { left: 0.4, center: 0.5, right: 0.6 },
             ],
-            weights: normalizeWeights([...prevChoice.weights, 1]),
+            weights: [...prevChoice.weights, 1],
             isDirty: true,
           };
         }

diff --git a/...s/[id]/components/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_group/forecast_maker_group_continuous.tsx b/...s/[id]/components/forecast_maker/forecast_maker_group/forecast_maker_group_continuous.tsx
@@ -18,7 +18,6 @@ import { QuestionWithNumericForecasts } from "@/types/question";
 import {
   extractPrevNumericForecastValue,
   getNumericForecastDataset,
-  normalizeWeights,
 } from "@/utils/forecasts";
 import { computeQuartilesFromCDF } from "@/utils/math";
 import { extractQuestionGroupName, formatResolution } from "@/utils/questions";
@@ -133,7 +132,7 @@ const ForecastMakerGroupContinuous: FC<Props> = ({
             ...prevChoice.userForecast,
             { left: 0.4, center: 0.5, right: 0.6 },
           ];
-          const newWeights = normalizeWeights([...prevChoice.userWeights, 1]);
+          const newWeights = [...prevChoice.userWeights, 1];
           const newUserQuartiles = getUserQuartiles(
             newUserForecast,
             newWeights